First Stop in the US: Seattle
On March 2 the official letter came from the University of Washington that they rejected our application to stay there during 3 months. Everything was organized, we had booked the flights for the next day. We decided that we had not received this letter and went on our trip the next day.
First we flew to New York to stay with friends in a nice neighborhood. Of course we were impressed by New York as everybody will be arriving there for the first time. However we also saw some bad areas which desperately needed renovation. Compared with these areas, the renovation areas in the Netherlands that we had just studied were luxurious neighborhoods. Michelle Obama in her book suggests that the owners are more interested in revenues from the insurance companies because of fire than in revenues by renting well maintained houses.
First we flew to New York to stay with friends in a nice neighborhood. Of course we were impressed by New York as everybody will be arriving there for the first time. However we also saw some bad areas which desperately needed renovation. Compared with these areas, the renovation areas in the Netherlands that we had just studied were luxurious neighborhoods. Michelle Obama in her book suggests that the owners are more interested in revenues from the insurance companies because of fire than in revenues by renting well maintained houses.
A renovation area in the Netherlands A renovation area in the USA
The contrast could not be larger
Next we went to Seattle, to the house were we could stay. This accommodation was arranged by Professor Blalock with a student of him. It was a big mansion on the top of a hill overlooking the town and the harbor.
Three couples had rented the house from the owner who had told them that he could not afford to live there. Therefore he rented the house to students to pay the mortgages. Because one couple had left, there was one floor free for us. The people were very nice. The men of the two couples worked in banks. One of the women was a student of Hubert Blalock and the other did social work. They told us that the system in the house was that they were eating together every week day and that each day another person was responsible for the meal. Because the work week has only 5 days it became clear that there was no task for me. The house was impressive. I liked especially the view over the city with the typical tower of Seattle and the view on the harbor. Such a nice house and such a warm welcome by our housemates we had not expected. This was a very pleasant start of our stay in the USA.
Next we went to Seattle, to the house were we could stay. This accommodation was arranged by Professor Blalock with a student of him. It was a big mansion on the top of a hill overlooking the town and the harbor.
Three couples had rented the house from the owner who had told them that he could not afford to live there. Therefore he rented the house to students to pay the mortgages. Because one couple had left, there was one floor free for us. The people were very nice. The men of the two couples worked in banks. One of the women was a student of Hubert Blalock and the other did social work. They told us that the system in the house was that they were eating together every week day and that each day another person was responsible for the meal. Because the work week has only 5 days it became clear that there was no task for me. The house was impressive. I liked especially the view over the city with the typical tower of Seattle and the view on the harbor. Such a nice house and such a warm welcome by our housemates we had not expected. This was a very pleasant start of our stay in the USA.
Getting to know Hubert Blalock
The next day we went with his student to the university. At the campus the trees blossomed beautifully but we were a bit tense because of the letter “we had not received”. We went to the room of Professor Blalock who welcomed us very friendly and immediately mentioned the official letter. He said: “As long as you don´t need credit points there will be no problem, you are welcome in my classes.” He offered me the key of his office and said: “I recommend you to read especially these papers, here in the corner, that is the latest work on structural equation models which will be the future, I guess, but the papers are rather complicated.”
The next day we went with his student to the university. At the campus the trees blossomed beautifully but we were a bit tense because of the letter “we had not received”. We went to the room of Professor Blalock who welcomed us very friendly and immediately mentioned the official letter. He said: “As long as you don´t need credit points there will be no problem, you are welcome in my classes.” He offered me the key of his office and said: “I recommend you to read especially these papers, here in the corner, that is the latest work on structural equation models which will be the future, I guess, but the papers are rather complicated.”
Irmtraud went to introductory classes in statistics and Willem went to the classes of the PhD students. Hubert Blalock taught as he was writing: his course was simple to follow but he did not ignore the difficult issues. He gave us a task to write a paper applying the material he was teaching. In the USA the university education was directed to publishing and therefore on writing papers. In the Netherlands this was much less the case. He showed us how path analysis could be used to correct for measurement error. We went with great pleasure to the campus not only for his classes but also for the beautiful spring blossoms.
A nice coincidence was that I had just read in a Dutch journal that the professor in methodology of the University of Amsterdam had suggested that social science will never be able to get good measures for their research because of the systematic errors due to the social desirability of some answers. The methodology professor of Groningen had criticized that publication suggesting that there was a solution, but his solution was wrong. So this was a nice topic for a paper in this class. I worked it out in path analysis how this problem could be solved. Blalock liked the paper and recommended me to publish it. This became my first statistical paper which was published in 1974. Some people at home were surprised that I, as an ordinary assistant, dared to attack the work of two professors but I had the backing of a more famous methodologist, Hubert Blalock, and what was even more important I could prove that my argument was right. That was why I had invested so much time in mathematics and statistics.
Watergate hearings
In the period that we were in the USA the Watergate hearings started. After the Pentagon papers were leaked by Daniel Elsberg and large demonstrations occurred, Nixon became very allergic for more leaks which could lead to strong opposition against his presidency. Therefore his government organized a so called “Plumbers group” that should stop all the leaks.
In the period that we were in the USA the Watergate hearings started. After the Pentagon papers were leaked by Daniel Elsberg and large demonstrations occurred, Nixon became very allergic for more leaks which could lead to strong opposition against his presidency. Therefore his government organized a so called “Plumbers group” that should stop all the leaks.
But they did more, they even broke in into the head quarter of the Democrats before the elections for the second term of Nixon. This break-in failed and soon it became clear that some officials of the Republican Party, especially members of the White house were involved. Then hearings were organized by the Senate to determine who else in the White House knew about this break-in and whether possibly even the president knew about it. Before these hearings started Nixon gave a speech saying that he had no knowledge of this crime and that he will try to bring out the facts. Later we will report how we analyzed this speech.
The hearings started with the least important people but with this information the committee could go up each time a level higher in the ranking in the White House and show that these people knew about this issue and in fact were involved. It was also shown that Nixon was involved from the very beginning to try to cover up the facts. Every night these hearings were broadcasted on the Public Television channel. I was one of the most loyal viewers because they were extremely interesting.
The hearings started with the least important people but with this information the committee could go up each time a level higher in the ranking in the White House and show that these people knew about this issue and in fact were involved. It was also shown that Nixon was involved from the very beginning to try to cover up the facts. Every night these hearings were broadcasted on the Public Television channel. I was one of the most loyal viewers because they were extremely interesting.
The reaction of Blalock
Once when we were invited in Blalock´s house I thought I will give him as a present a typical children game (Gooseboard) where you have to throw a dice to move your position on the board. The aim is to get as fast as possible from point 1 to the end point 63. In that process one would hit on spots indicated by a picture of a goose where one has to answer questions and you can go ahead if the answer is right or back if not. The questions in the game I made were about the people involved in the Watergate and the end point was decorated by a picture of Nixon.
The similarity with the hearings was very obvious. During his classes Blalock always was making jokes about Nixon based on the hearings. However, to my surprise, after this meeting Blalock never made jokes about Nixon anymore. He was probably too ashamed about the government especially now that he realized that also foreigners understood what was going on.
Once when we were invited in Blalock´s house I thought I will give him as a present a typical children game (Gooseboard) where you have to throw a dice to move your position on the board. The aim is to get as fast as possible from point 1 to the end point 63. In that process one would hit on spots indicated by a picture of a goose where one has to answer questions and you can go ahead if the answer is right or back if not. The questions in the game I made were about the people involved in the Watergate and the end point was decorated by a picture of Nixon.
The similarity with the hearings was very obvious. During his classes Blalock always was making jokes about Nixon based on the hearings. However, to my surprise, after this meeting Blalock never made jokes about Nixon anymore. He was probably too ashamed about the government especially now that he realized that also foreigners understood what was going on.
What else did I learn?
As I mentioned before, Professor Blalock suggested me to read a number of papers of his book shelves which he thought were very important for the future and so also for my future but which were too difficult for him. Looking at the papers I saw immediately why he found these papers rather complicated. They all started on the first page with the formula which I have presented below.
As I mentioned before, Professor Blalock suggested me to read a number of papers of his book shelves which he thought were very important for the future and so also for my future but which were too difficult for him. Looking at the papers I saw immediately why he found these papers rather complicated. They all started on the first page with the formula which I have presented below.
This is a formula in matrix algebra which is not understandable without knowledge of matrix algebra and interest in looking how the author came to this formula. One part of Blalock´s remark was clear but how did he know that these difficult papers were the papers for the future? The author of several of these papers was Karl Jöreskog, a Swedish statistician. To detect why this formula was so important I ignored this formula for the moment and just went to the next pages where different models were presented in normal algebra and he showed in his papers that all these models were specific cases of the model that was presented in the large formula.
He also had developed a program for an estimation and testing procedure for these models on the basis of the given large matrix formula. In fact all the path models I had seen in the past and many more, which I had never seen, could be presented as special cases and so could also be estimated with the same program. This explains the importance of this complex matrix equation and the importance of these papers for the future and indeed also for my future. I also immediately understood that we needed to study more matrix algebra than we had done before. That was planned for the next year. Firstly, we continued our trip through the USA.
He also had developed a program for an estimation and testing procedure for these models on the basis of the given large matrix formula. In fact all the path models I had seen in the past and many more, which I had never seen, could be presented as special cases and so could also be estimated with the same program. This explains the importance of this complex matrix equation and the importance of these papers for the future and indeed also for my future. I also immediately understood that we needed to study more matrix algebra than we had done before. That was planned for the next year. Firstly, we continued our trip through the USA.