How Hitler rushed Germany into World War II, 1939
I mainly studied the arguments of members of democratic regimes and constitutional monarchies and I was curious whether or not dictators would argue in the same way. For this purpose I studied Hitler´s argumentation to invade Poland.
Political background
When Hitler wrote Mein Kampf in the 1920s, he already had set out his foreign policy program. It consisted among other things of revising the Treaty of Versailles concluded after World War I, incorporating Austria, and transforming Czechoslovakia and Poland into satellite states for achieving more German Lebensraum (living space). This meant that the German master race would be provided by resources of food and raw material and slave labour. When he came to power in the 1930s, he first began by pursuing the rearmament of Germany, against the provisions of the Treaty of Versailles and notwithstanding the protests of France, Britain, Italy and the League of Nations from which he withdrew Germany in 1933.
In 1936 Hitler launched a four-year plan to prepare Germany for war. In the same year he concluded a pact with Mussolini whom he admired as his equal. The pact was the so-called Rome-Berlin axis, of which Japan became the third member in 1938. In November of 1937, when Hitler disclosed to the leaders of the armed forces some of his plans for achieving more Lebensraum, he failed to convince his audience and consequently replaced the leaders of the army, abolished the position of minister of war and made himself commander-in-chief of the armed forces. By these means he avoided further objections to the implementation of his decisions.
Political background
When Hitler wrote Mein Kampf in the 1920s, he already had set out his foreign policy program. It consisted among other things of revising the Treaty of Versailles concluded after World War I, incorporating Austria, and transforming Czechoslovakia and Poland into satellite states for achieving more German Lebensraum (living space). This meant that the German master race would be provided by resources of food and raw material and slave labour. When he came to power in the 1930s, he first began by pursuing the rearmament of Germany, against the provisions of the Treaty of Versailles and notwithstanding the protests of France, Britain, Italy and the League of Nations from which he withdrew Germany in 1933.
In 1936 Hitler launched a four-year plan to prepare Germany for war. In the same year he concluded a pact with Mussolini whom he admired as his equal. The pact was the so-called Rome-Berlin axis, of which Japan became the third member in 1938. In November of 1937, when Hitler disclosed to the leaders of the armed forces some of his plans for achieving more Lebensraum, he failed to convince his audience and consequently replaced the leaders of the army, abolished the position of minister of war and made himself commander-in-chief of the armed forces. By these means he avoided further objections to the implementation of his decisions.
First annexations
In the spring of 1938, Hitler annexed Austria with no protest from other European powers. This encouraged him to take over the German speaking Sudetenland, a border region of Bohemia and Moravia, which belonged to Czechoslovakia .
At the Munich Conference, September 1938, the British and French accepted the transfer of the Sudetenland to Germany, given Hitler´s promise that it was his last annexation. The Western powers tried to appease him in order to avoid a war. However, Hitler did not keep his promise and invaded Czechoslovakia in the spring of 1939. Next Hitler tried to acquire from Poland a corridor to East Prussia (capital Königsberg) which was since the treaty of Versailles separated from the German homeland. When the Poles refused his request the British felt obliged in March 1939 to guarantee Poland its independence.
In regard to this British move, Hitler had by then formed the opinion that the British were too weak to stand by their guarantee. He also felt strengthened by his pact with Stalin which was about to be concluded at the end of August 1939. Stalin also had an interest in Poland, while for Hitler this treaty assured him of the time needed to concentrate on the West rather than open two fronts in the event that war did break out. Within this political context he decided that the time had come to invade Poland.
In the spring of 1938, Hitler annexed Austria with no protest from other European powers. This encouraged him to take over the German speaking Sudetenland, a border region of Bohemia and Moravia, which belonged to Czechoslovakia .
At the Munich Conference, September 1938, the British and French accepted the transfer of the Sudetenland to Germany, given Hitler´s promise that it was his last annexation. The Western powers tried to appease him in order to avoid a war. However, Hitler did not keep his promise and invaded Czechoslovakia in the spring of 1939. Next Hitler tried to acquire from Poland a corridor to East Prussia (capital Königsberg) which was since the treaty of Versailles separated from the German homeland. When the Poles refused his request the British felt obliged in March 1939 to guarantee Poland its independence.
In regard to this British move, Hitler had by then formed the opinion that the British were too weak to stand by their guarantee. He also felt strengthened by his pact with Stalin which was about to be concluded at the end of August 1939. Stalin also had an interest in Poland, while for Hitler this treaty assured him of the time needed to concentrate on the West rather than open two fronts in the event that war did break out. Within this political context he decided that the time had come to invade Poland.
Hitler´s argument for invading Poland
On August 22, 1939 Hitler convened his supreme commanders to a meeting in his residence, the Berghof, in the Bavarian Alps. He opened the meeting by explaining the causes of the problem. Although he had planned first to fight the Western powers, he had changed his plans because of the Polish attempt to gain access to the sea through Danzig, a German populated city under the control of the League of Nations. In his opinion it was now the right moment to resolve the Polish problem.
He presented the following argument for the invasion to the supreme commanders.
If Germany would do nothing (S2), it would certainly lead sooner or later to its destruction, because economically the country was close to bankruptcy (O21).
If Germany would invade Poland (S1) the chance was high that the Western nations would not meet their commitments to Poland because they were not prepared for a war. Germany could thus occupy Poland and secure its own material future by making use of Polish resources (O11).
However there was also a slight chance that the Western nations would enforce an economic embargo against Germany, break off diplomatic relations and initiate war (O12).
Another possibility, although with a very low probability, was that the Western nations would enforce an embargo and break off diplomatic relations, but no war would ensue and Germany could then secure its economic resources (O13).
Finally he mentioned that the probability was zero that the Western countries would create a blockade without war and that Germany´s resources would be secured (O14).
This argument has been summarized in the table below.
On August 22, 1939 Hitler convened his supreme commanders to a meeting in his residence, the Berghof, in the Bavarian Alps. He opened the meeting by explaining the causes of the problem. Although he had planned first to fight the Western powers, he had changed his plans because of the Polish attempt to gain access to the sea through Danzig, a German populated city under the control of the League of Nations. In his opinion it was now the right moment to resolve the Polish problem.
He presented the following argument for the invasion to the supreme commanders.
If Germany would do nothing (S2), it would certainly lead sooner or later to its destruction, because economically the country was close to bankruptcy (O21).
If Germany would invade Poland (S1) the chance was high that the Western nations would not meet their commitments to Poland because they were not prepared for a war. Germany could thus occupy Poland and secure its own material future by making use of Polish resources (O11).
However there was also a slight chance that the Western nations would enforce an economic embargo against Germany, break off diplomatic relations and initiate war (O12).
Another possibility, although with a very low probability, was that the Western nations would enforce an embargo and break off diplomatic relations, but no war would ensue and Germany could then secure its economic resources (O13).
Finally he mentioned that the probability was zero that the Western countries would create a blockade without war and that Germany´s resources would be secured (O14).
This argument has been summarized in the table below.
Given his argument Hitler chose for the invasion of Poland (S1), the alternative with a high probability of a positive outcome which is in line with the risk-avoidance rule. In other decision situations we saw that Hitler used similar arguments we have found before.
The reaction of his military commanders
In the minutes of the meeting it is mentioned that only Goering, the supreme commander of the air force, applauded this decision enthusiastically, while the other commanders preferred to keep silent.
Hitler then exhorted solidarity among the participants, asking them to keep an iron resolution to retreat from nothing. Finally, he informed them that he would take care of a propaganda campaign claiming provocation of war by the Polish government.
On September 1 Hitler invaded Poland and on September 3 the Western powers declared war on Germany. So Hitler underestimated the chance of war. It seems that the success of his earlier invasions made him reckless and he entered a war, which cost millions of lives and led to the destruction of Germany.
The reaction of his military commanders
In the minutes of the meeting it is mentioned that only Goering, the supreme commander of the air force, applauded this decision enthusiastically, while the other commanders preferred to keep silent.
Hitler then exhorted solidarity among the participants, asking them to keep an iron resolution to retreat from nothing. Finally, he informed them that he would take care of a propaganda campaign claiming provocation of war by the Polish government.
On September 1 Hitler invaded Poland and on September 3 the Western powers declared war on Germany. So Hitler underestimated the chance of war. It seems that the success of his earlier invasions made him reckless and he entered a war, which cost millions of lives and led to the destruction of Germany.